Finally, we had Andrey Duhovniy
, executive director of the liquidity risk modelling department of Sberbank
. He talked about how Russia's biggest bank is trialing a prediction market system, albeit a centralized one, to forecast their corporate metrics. The main outcome of their current trial is that such system can significantly lower the costs of marketing research for virtually any given company.
Moreover, Andrey shared some stats: forecasting with prediction markets is twice as effective as individual forecasts made by analysts; and the minimal threshold of active market participants to form a reliable forecast stands at 50.
Finally, the event concluded with a panel-like Q&A session.
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